ASCVD Risk Calculator

The equations are validated for ages 40 to 79.
The model was fitted with separate African American equations; the guideline says to use the White/other equations for all other populations.
10-year risk of a first hard ASCVD event
5.4 %
ASCVD 10-Year Risk Calculator (Pooled Cohort Equations)
Guideline risk category
Borderline risk (5% to under 7.5%)
Equation stratum used
White or other men
Coefficient x value sum
60.6995
Group mean sum
61.18
Baseline 10-year survival
0.9144
Worked out from Goff DC Jr et al. 2013 ACC/AHA Guideline on the Assessment of Cardiovascular Risk. Circulation 2014;129(25 Suppl 2):S49-S73 and 2 other sources.
The Pooled Cohort Equations apply to adults aged 40-79 without existing clinical ASCVD, and were derived in non-Hispanic White and African American cohorts; they are known to over- or under-estimate risk in some other populations.
The 2013 equations are the model implemented here. The AHA PREVENT equations (2023) are a newer model with a different variable set and are not computed by this engine.
Educational estimate only. The Pooled Cohort Equations are a population model for primary prevention in adults aged 40-79 without existing ASCVD; treatment decisions belong to a clinician in a risk discussion with the patient.

How this is worked out

4 steps
  1. Stratum: White or other men (baseline 10-year survival 0.9144, group mean 61.18)
  2. Coefficient x value sum = 60.6995
  3. Sum minus group mean = 60.6995 - 61.18 = -0.4805
  4. Risk = 1 - 0.9144^exp(-0.4805) = 5.38%

Results are general information, not financial, tax, legal, medical or engineering advice.