Hedge Calculator

Formatting only. This does not change the calculation.
American (+150, -110), decimal (2.50), fractional (3/2) or a probability (40%).
Leave on automatic unless a bare number is ambiguous.
For arbitrage this is the total to spread across all outcomes.
Multiply full Kelly by this. Half Kelly (0.5) keeps most of the growth with far less variance.
Guaranteed profit after hedging
100
Betting Odds Calculator
Decimal odds
6
American / moneyline odds
500
Fractional odds
5/1
Implied probability
16.666667 %
Hong Kong odds
5
Indonesian odds
5
Malay odds
-0.2
Profit if the bet wins
500
Total return (stake plus profit)
600
Hedge stake
400
Return whichever side wins
600
Break-even win probability
16.666667 %
Worked out from Kelly, J.L. Jr (1956), "A New Interpretation of Information Rate", Bell System Technical Journal 35(4), 917-926 and 3 other sources.
This is an arithmetic tool, not betting advice. Bookmaker prices already carry a margin, so the long-run expected value of a bet at posted odds is negative unless you genuinely have an edge. Gamble only what you can afford to lose.

How this is worked out

5 steps
  1. Decimal price = 6, i.e. 500 American, 5/1 fractional, 16.666667% implied.
  2. A stake of 100 returns 600 in total, a profit of 500.
  3. The original bet returns 600 if it wins (stake 100 at 6).
  4. To return the same amount on the other side, stake 600 / 1.5 = 400 at 1.5.
  5. Either way you get back 600 having risked 500, so the locked-in profit is 100.

Results are general information, not financial, tax, legal, medical or engineering advice.