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Hedge Calculator

Hedge calculator works out Decimal odds and American / moneyline odds from Odds, Odds format and Stake. The default figures on this page give guaranteed profit after hedging of 100; change any entry and the result, the working and the sources update together.

Guaranteed profit after hedging
100
Betting Odds Calculator
Decimal odds
6
American / moneyline odds
500
Fractional odds
5/1
Implied probability
16.666667 %
Hong Kong odds
5
Indonesian odds
5
Malay odds
-0.2
Profit if the bet wins
500
Total return (stake plus profit)
600
Hedge stake
400
Return whichever side wins
600
Break-even win probability
16.666667 %
Worked out from Kelly, J.L. Jr (1956), "A New Interpretation of Information Rate", Bell System Technical Journal 35(4), 917-926 and 3 other sources.
This is an arithmetic tool, not betting advice. Bookmaker prices already carry a margin, so the long-run expected value of a bet at posted odds is negative unless you genuinely have an edge. Gamble only what you can afford to lose.

Your figures

Updates as you type
Formatting only. This does not change the calculation.
American (+150, -110), decimal (2.50), fractional (3/2) or a probability (40%).
Leave on automatic unless a bare number is ambiguous.
For arbitrage this is the total to spread across all outcomes.
Multiply full Kelly by this. Half Kelly (0.5) keeps most of the growth with far less variance.

How this is worked out

5 steps
  1. Decimal price = 6, i.e. 500 American, 5/1 fractional, 16.666667% implied.
  2. A stake of 100 returns 600 in total, a profit of 500.
  3. The original bet returns 600 if it wins (stake 100 at 6).
  4. To return the same amount on the other side, stake 600 / 1.5 = 400 at 1.5.
  5. Either way you get back 600 having risked 500, so the locked-in profit is 100.

Its 5 worked examples are re-run on every release, last on 15 September 2026. What changed

Sources and references

4 sources
Thorp, E.O. (2006), "The Kelly Criterion in Blackjack, Sports Betting and the Stock Market", Handbook of Asset and Liability Management, Elsevier
Fractional-Kelly practice and the variance argument for staking below full Kelly.
Cortis, D. (2015), "Expected values and variances in bookmaker payouts: a theoretical approach towards setting limits on odds", Journal of Prediction Markets 9(1), 1-14
Definition of the overround/vigorish and the multiplicative method of removing it.
Shin, H.S. (1993), "Measuring the incidence of insider trading in a market for state-contingent claims", The Economic Journal 103(420), 1141-1153
Background on why the sum of implied probabilities exceeds one in a real book.

What the hedge calculator calculates

Converts between American, decimal, fractional and implied-probability odds, works out payouts and parlay returns, strips the bookmaker margin to give no-vig fair prices, finds arbitrage stakes across books, sizes a bet by the Kelly criterion and computes hedge stakes and martingale sequences.

How to use this hedge calculator

Enter Odds, Odds format, Stake and Kelly fraction. Decimal odds updates as you type. Change one figure at a time to see what drives the result.

How the result is worked out

Open “How this is worked out” beside the result for the step-by-step calculation behind Decimal odds, American / moneyline odds and Fractional odds.

The method follows Kelly, J.L. Jr (1956), "A New Interpretation of Information Rate", Bell System Technical Journal 35(4), 917-926, Thorp, E.O. (2006), "The Kelly Criterion in Blackjack, Sports Betting and the Stock Market", Handbook of Asset and Liability Management, Elsevier, Cortis, D. (2015), "Expected values and variances in bookmaker payouts: a theoretical approach towards setting limits on odds", Journal of Prediction Markets 9(1), 1-14 and Shin, H.S. (1993), "Measuring the incidence of insider trading in a market for state-contingent claims", The Economic Journal 103(420), 1141-1153.

What you can compare

Change one input at a time to see how it affects Decimal odds, American / moneyline odds and Fractional odds. The inputs you can vary are Odds, Odds format, Stake, Kelly fraction and Odds available on the other side.

Understanding Decimal odds, American / moneyline odds and Fractional odds

This is an arithmetic tool, not betting advice. Bookmaker prices already carry a margin, so the long-run expected value of a bet at posted odds is negative unless you genuinely have an edge. Gamble only what you can afford to lose.

Results are general information, not financial, tax, legal, medical or engineering advice. Check any decision that matters with a qualified professional.

Embed this calculator on your website

Copy this code into any page. The calculator appears with the figures currently entered, sizes itself to fit, and a small credit line links back here. Free, no account, no ads inside it, no tracking of your readers. Set your own figures and fixed fields; Personal removes the credit line, sets your colour and shows you which sites use it.

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Frequently asked questions

How do I calculate the hedging cost?

Converts between American, decimal, fractional and implied-probability odds, works out payouts and parlay returns, strips the bookmaker margin to give no-vig fair prices, finds arbitrage stakes across books. Open “How this is worked out” beside the result to see each step for your own figures.

Is a hedge calculator free to use?

The calculation is free and does not require an account. An account is only needed for optional features such as saving, comparing, exporting, or sharing supported scenarios.

How to calculate hedge efficiency?

It needs Odds, Odds format, Stake, Kelly fraction and Odds available on the other side. Nothing else is required, and the figures stay in your browser.

Is hedging bet profitable?

Converts between American, decimal, fractional and implied-probability odds, works out payouts and parlay returns, strips the bookmaker margin to give no-vig fair prices, finds arbitrage stakes across books. On the figures this page opens with — stake 100 — the guaranteed profit after hedging is 100. Put your own figures in their place and the working updates beside the result.

What information do I need for the hedge calculator?

You need Odds, Odds format, Stake, Kelly fraction and Odds available on the other side. The page opens with default figures that give guaranteed profit after hedging of 100, so you can see the scale before entering your own.

What does this hedge calculator show?

It shows Decimal odds, American / moneyline odds, Fractional odds, Implied probability, Hong Kong odds, Indonesian odds, Malay odds and Profit if the bet wins, with the working and any warnings for your entries.

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